International diplomats stationed in Cuba’s capital are growing increasingly concerned about Washington’s aggressive strategy to topple the island’s communist leadership, while simultaneously preparing contingency plans to reduce their diplomatic presence as the situation deteriorates rapidly.
The Caribbean nation finds itself in an unprecedented predicament. Following four consecutive years of economic decline, exacerbated by soaring inflation and the departure of nearly one-fifth of its citizens, the communist administration that has ruled for 67 years appears more vulnerable than ever. With the United States achieving military success against Cuba’s Venezuelan ally in early January, American officials are now actively pursuing governmental overthrow on the island.
Multiple high-ranking diplomatic sources from various nations have voiced their dissatisfaction to international media, criticizing US Chargé d’Affaires Mike Hammer for failing to present any comprehensive strategy beyond paralyzing the nation through petroleum deprivation. According to one diplomatic source, discussions focus heavily on human rights concerns and predictions that this year will bring change to Cuba, yet little consideration is given to post-transition planning.
While some maintain optimism about reported secret negotiations in Mexico involving Cuban General Alejandro Castro Espín, the son of 94-year-old former leader Raúl Castro, and American representatives, no tangible progress has emerged from these alleged discussions.
Foreign representatives in Havana are instead bracing for an alternative approach: systematically weakening the country until civil unrest erupts, providing justification for American intervention. One ambassador emphasized their efforts to maintain composure, while another noted that diplomatic missions must always prepare for unforeseen circumstances before they become inevitable.
Adding to these concerns, fuel shortages are severely hampering the UN World Food Programme’s hurricane relief efforts following last year’s devastating Hurricane Melissa. The organization, which maintains a discrete operational footprint on the island, must now develop contingency plans for a significantly larger humanitarian crisis. Country Director Étienne Labande reported observable impacts on urban fresh produce availability.
Diplomatic officials expressed alarm at the rapid pace with which fuel scarcity could trigger widespread hardship across multiple sectors including electricity generation, water distribution, and food transportation. One source estimated the timeline in weeks rather than months, suggesting that while rural communities might survive, urban populations face severe risk.
This latest emergency stems from President Trump’s January executive order implementing tariffs against any nation providing petroleum to Cuba. Despite strong objections from traditional Cuban allies China and Russia, the economic pressure has proven remarkably effective.
Even Mexico, which replaced Venezuela as Cuba’s primary oil supplier last year, has halted tanker shipments, though President Claudia Sheinbaum condemned the sanctions as unjust and dispatched 800 tons of humanitarian assistance. She publicly criticized the unfair treatment of the Cuban population due to American sanctions.
During a January 28th reception at the US diplomatic residence, Hammer referenced the longstanding American embargo, telling attendees that while Cubans have protested the economic blockade for decades, they would now experience a genuine blockade.
Following this event, Hammer embarked on a tour of eastern Cuba, distributing American aid while encountering small groups of government-supported demonstrators. He subsequently traveled to Rome for Vatican discussions, as the Catholic Church maintains growing influence on the island.
Embassy representatives confirmed regular diplomatic meetings but declined to discuss specific details of these conversations.
The petroleum blockade’s consequences have materialized more rapidly than anticipated, heightening diplomatic anxiety. All three Canadian airlines serving Cuban tourist routes suspended operations this week due to aviation fuel shortages, followed by two Russian carriers. These five airlines have initiated passenger repatriation procedures.
Canadian visitors numbered 750,000 in 2025, representing the largest tourist demographic. Russian tourists rank third, following Cuban expatriates. The UK Foreign Office updated its travel guidance Wednesday, recommending only essential travel to the island.
As the oil embargo severely undermines the government’s foreign currency earnings, ordinary Cubans beyond diplomatic quarters are preparing for life without petroleum products. One resident compared the atmosphere to the 1962 missile crisis, noting how people continued daily routines despite underlying anxiety.
Government authorities have already closed universities, secondary schools, and non-essential state facilities while reducing public transportation to conserve remaining resources.
Nuclear physics student Adrian Rodriguez Suárez, 22, from Holguín but residing in Havana student housing, received instructions to return home for remote learning. He expressed concerns about educational continuity, noting that electricity availability drops significantly outside the capital.
Social media platforms reflect growing public anxiety, with users posting about cancelled wedding plans and transportation challenges for medical patients. However, some citizens are adapting creatively, including entrepreneurs manufacturing wood-burning stoves and community members offering free transportation for medical emergencies.
Diplomatic missions are finalizing evacuation procedures should conditions rapidly deteriorate. Officials question the purpose of maintaining presence without operational capability, while expressing hope that rational thinking will prevail.
In central Havana, popular tourist destinations are experiencing unprecedented quiet. The trendy Yarini rooftop bar, typically bustling with activity, hosted only two occupied tables on a recent evening. Rather than local patrons or typical tourists, the customers were war correspondents taking respite from Ukrainian winter coverage, hoping to document the potential collapse of one of the world’s remaining communist governments.
Photo by Dylan Shaw on Unsplash
Photo by Juan Luis Ozaez on Unsplash
Photo by Carlos Torres on Unsplash
